National foreword

This Published Document is the UK implementation of ISO/TS 31050:2023.

The UK participation in its preparation was entrusted to Technical Committee RM/1, Risk management.

A list of organizations represented on this committee can be obtained on request to its committee manager.

Contractual and legal considerations

This publication has been prepared in good faith, however no representation, warranty, assurance or undertaking (express or implied) is or will be made, and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by BSI in relation to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of this publication. All and any such responsibility and liability is expressly disclaimed to the full extent permitted by the law.

This publication is provided as is, and is to be used at the recipient’s own risk.

The recipient is advised to consider seeking professional guidance with respect to its use of this publication.

This publication is not intended to constitute a contract. Users are responsible for its correct application.

This publication is not to be regarded as a British Standard.

Compliance with a Published Document cannot confer immunity from legal obligations.

This Published Document was published under the authority of the Standards Policy and Strategy Committee on 30 November 2023.

Foreword

ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.

The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular, the different approval criteria needed for the different types of ISO document should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives).

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This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 262, Risk management,in collaboration with Technical Committee ISO/TC 292, Security and resilience.

Any feedback or questions on this document should be directed to the user’s national standards body. A complete listing of these bodies can be found at www.iso.org/members.html.

Introduction

Emerging risks are characterized by their newness, insufficient data, and a lack of verifiable information and knowledge needed for decision-making related to them. As these risks can develop with the potential for large threats and opportunities, appropriate management of emerging risks should be established as a part of an organization’s risk management. It should include changes in circumstances or conditions related to multiple aspects of the organization’s external context and the implications for its internal context.

Emerging risks can include, for example:

risks arising from unrecognized changes in organizational contexts;
risks created by innovation or social and technological development;
risks related to new sources or previously unrecognized sources of risk;
risks from new or modified processes, products or services.

Consequences of emerging risks can include, for example:

exposure to unforeseen hazards and threats with uncertain outcomes;
increased exposure to hazards and threats from known risk sources;
lost or gained opportunities.

Managing the emerging risk should be knowledge-focused and dependent on the need to accumulate verifiable data and information, especially when these are limited or inconsistent. With interpretation, this information forms knowledge and creates intelligence for strategic, tactical and operational decision-making.

To this aim, this document provides guidelines for applying ISO 31000 to managing emerging risks to enhance organizational resilience. The focus is on emerging risks potentially having the most significant consequences for the organization and its objectives. Applying the ISO 31000 principles and process to managing the emerging risk requires an understanding of the different aspects of the context in which the organization operates. In particular, this applies to the following:

the continual scanning of changing circumstances or conditions that can result in an emerging risk helps to develop knowledge and provide the intelligence needed for strategic, tactical and operational decision-making;
the identification of changes in an organizational context is often an early indicator or signal that identifies vulnerabilities and the sources of emerging risks;
managing emerging risks relies on the application of the ISO 31000 principles under conditions of extreme uncertainty, increasing volatility, complexity and ambiguity within the multiple aspects of the context in which the organization operates.

Specific guidance is provided on:

how to understand the nature and characteristics of emerging risks (see Clause 4);
how the principles of risk management apply to emerging risks (see Clause 5);
how the ISO 31000 risk management process is applied to emerging risks (see Clause 6);
how resilience can be enhanced by managing emerging risks (see Clause 7);
how to use the risk intelligence cycle for emerging risks (see Clause 8).

Further details are provided in Annexes A to F.

The application of this document helps organizations to benefit from:

increased awareness, reducing the likelihood of failing to anticipate emerging risks;
early recognition of emerging risks and increased level of preparedness and resilience;
timely dissemination of data and exchange of information among stakeholders;
alignment of actions on emerging risks across all aspects of organizational contexts.

1 Scope

This document gives guidance on managing emerging risks that an organization can face. This document complements ISO 31000.

This document is applicable to any organization, at any stage and to any activity of the organization. Its application can be customized to suit different organizations or the context of different organizations.

2 Normative references

3 Terms and definitions

4 Emerging risks

4.1 Nature of emerging risks

4.2 Characterization of emerging risks

4.3 Development of emerging risks

4.4 Relationship between managing emerging risks and organizational resilience

5 Principles

5.1 General

5.2 Integrated

5.3 Structured and comprehensive

5.4 Customized

5.5 Inclusive

5.6 Dynamic

5.7 Best available information

5.8 Human and cultural factors

5.9 Continual improvement

6 Process

6.1 Applying the ISO 31000 process to emerging risks

6.2 Communication and consultation

6.3 Scope, context and criteria

6.4 Risk assessment

6.5 Risk treatment

6.6 Monitoring and review

6.7 Recording and reporting

7 Enhancing resilience by managing emerging risks

7.1 Capability development

7.2 Emerging risks and resilience indicators

8 Risk intelligence cycle and managing emerging risks

8.1 Overview

8.2 Applying knowledge to decisions on emerging risks

Bibliography

PD ISO/TS 31050:2023

Risk management. Guidelines for managing an emerging risk to enhance resilience

Current

Published:

30 Nov 2023